Late Season Winter Threat (Brent/Raleigh)

Precipitation did not move into Central NC early enough to produce any wintry precipitation. However, as was forecast, NW and Northern Piedmont received snow, some of it measurable. Temps tonight will be unseasonably cold, so cover up those early season outdoor plants!

FINAL UPDATE Monday March 24, 7:30pm

Tuesday: The low that was threatening the area with winter weather over the weekend has been shifted well off the coast. It will be a powerful storm, just not here in NC. The most likely area for snow will be the N and NW Piedmont, with a rain/snow mix for the Triangle - possibly mixing at times as well as changing back and forth between p-types. Even in the Triad area where snow accumulates some, don't expect any real travel impact as ground temps are in the 40s. The times mentioned in my previous update from Saturday are still pretty much the same. Rain/snow mix up until 11am then changing to rain.

Tuesday night: Cold! Temps will be well into the 20s with single digit windchills.

Let's all just hope this is it and long term warm weather will arrive soon!

NWS Forecast for Tuesday March 25

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UPDATE Saturday March 22, 6:00pm

Models are trending warmer with Tuesday's system. As of now, it appears a powerful low pressure system will merge in some way with an upper level trough containing several shortwaves. This will occur over VA and the Carolinas Tuesday.

Currently there are 2 model extremes to be noted: 

1) The GFS shows a well formed and rapidly developing low pressure system interacting with the upper trough. This would form an intense band of precipitation between about 5am and noon Tuesday.

2) The ECMWF is trending slower to the point that there is no interaction between the low and the shortwaves. If this is the case then precipitation amounts (regardless of type) will be dramatically less.

For now the best course of action will be to go with the middle solution. So N of 64 and W of 95 will be the areas with the highest probability of seeing snow Tuesday morning. Areas S of 64 and E of 95 may see some snow early changing to rain by 8am. As of now all areas are expected to change to rain by 2pm. 

Once again, it is late March, so forecasting any kind of "winter" weather is difficult due to the high sun angle.

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Original Post:

The NWS has issued a hazardous weather outlook for central and parts of eastern NC for a potential storm system moving up the coast early next week. Models are in very good agreement (especially for a storm this far away) of the track of the storm. It looks to be a rather intense Miller-A closed low rapidly intensifying as it moves up the coast. As of now, the rain/snow line would be down near the NC/SC border for most if not all of the event. I will keep updating over the next couple of days as more information comes in from the NWS.