February 27 - March 1

Thursday through Saturday 2/27-3/1

With a dry cold front moving through tomorrow afternoon, expect temperatures to plummet well into the 20s tomorrow night. In the meantime, winds will be gusty Thursday ahead of the front. Given that the air will be dry, a special weather statement for increased fire danger has been issued for central NC. Burning is not recommended.

Friday, highs in the lower to mid 40s. Friday night into Saturday morning: there appears to be enough evidence of a lift mechanism to form some mixed precipitation in the wee hours of Saturday morning to just after daybreak. The rain/sleet/snow mix will change over to light rain before ending mid-late morning Saturday. With limited moisture and short duration, no travel woes are anticipated at this time. Expect highs around 50 unless the clouds hang around for a while. 

Satellite image from Wednesday evening:

WX Summary through Friday

First of all, with high pressure moving in, expect tonight to be cold with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. SW winds will pick up later on, but will likely be too late to prevent an extended period of radiational cooling. The only thing that would moderate temperatures overnight would be clouds moving in early. 

Tuesday: increasing cloudiness. A surface low will form over the southeast and eventually track up the southeast coast. Don't expect much more than some drizzle or a sprinkle tomorrow afternoon. The airmass is very dry and it may take a while for any precipitation to reach the ground. Tuesday night, as the low develops and moves off the coast, rain will be prevalent mostly east of the triangle with places west receiving little to no rain. As cold air moves in and pushes the low pressure system out very early Wednesday, it will not be out of the question to see some wet snowflakes before the precipitation exits the area, but even those chances are slim. 

Wednesday: cold air will pour in from the NW on the heels of exiting precipitation. Expect temps to be 30s N to 40s S. Wednesday night, lows in the mid to lower 20s.

Thursday: highs in the upper 40s N to mid 50s S.

Friday into Saturday: Forecast confidence is still low concerning potential p-type issues with a system moving through the area during this timeframe. There is little continuity between model runs and the system in question is still over an area of the eastern Pacific where data sampling is sparse. The development of the system also depends on "timing/phasing with the northern [jet] stream energy."

More on the weekend and early next week as the week progresses. There are still a lot of unknowns involving potential systems.

February 24 - March 2, 2014

Concerning the Return of Winter for February 24-March 2, 2014

Update 7:45pm: Looks like we will be on the southern fringe of the arctic air mass for Friday and Saturday. All eyes are on a wave coming across the south and up the coast. The wave is currently over an area of the Pacific where sampling of the system is "sparse". There will be energy moving across the deep south Friday into Saturday which will meet up with a stalled frontal zone potentially causing "surface cyclogenesis" (formation of a low pressure system). This would then travel from the gulf and up the southeast coast.

Given that temperatures will not (at this time) be as cold as originally thought, forecasters are going with another cold rain for now. The potential cyclogenesis needs to be monitored for winter p-type potential.

What little I know of this system is reminding me of the March 2010 storm:

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12:26pm

Though many in central NC are tired of winter weather, it appears that this taste of spring will have been short-lived. 

With high pressure moving offshore today, our winds will be from the south and southwest. Winds around high pressure travel clockwise in the northern hemisphere (or with the rotation of the earth). Expect very warm temperatures today from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south. Tonight into tomorrow: a dry cold front will move through the region early Monday morning bringing with it cooler temperatures. Expect highs in the 50s north and low 60s south. 

Lows will be in the lower to mid 30s. Clouds will increase Tuesday as a low approaches from the gulf. 

From Tuesday night to Saturday, the forecast gets tricky. The weather will be wetter than normal and colder than normal. Several waves of low pressure will sweep through the south.

Early Wednesday, the first low pressure system will track close to the southeast coast. Not much is known about this system at this time except any wintry p-types may be confined to the N and NW parts of NC. As for now, expect cold rain Tuesday night and Wednesday. Forecast confidence is low at this time.

Thursday will be mostly clear with lows in the upper 40s NW to lower 50s SE. Expect similar conditions on Friday with increasing cloudiness.

Friday night into Saturday will need to be monitored closely as very cold high pressure will be set in place to our north and another low tracks up the coast. 

Due to the variations in models, forecast confidence is low at this time concerning both the Tuesday night-Wednesday storm and the Friday night-Saturday storm. Keep a close eye on weather forecasts as things could change. This time of year makes forecasting tricky when it comes to any threat of winter precipitation. 

*And once again, don't believe every post or model you see floating around on social media.*

February 21, 2014

Central NC Forecast for Friday February 21, 2014 and the Threat of Severe Weather.

A cold front will swing through NC tomorrow bringing with it a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms. 

The front should move through the foothills by around daybreak, Raleigh by midday, reaching the coast by late Friday afternoon. In the meantime, winds will be gusty from the S and SW ahead of the front. Due to the anticipated midday arrival of the front to central NC along with the lack of major instability, widespread severe weather is not expected. Chances are better east of Highway 1.

Individual severe storms cannot be ruled out as winds around 1000 ft will be blowing upwards of 50 mph. It would not take much for an individual storm or line of storms to send these winds down to the ground. 

Given that the ground is fairly saturated, do not be surprised to see some weakened trees down.

tl;dr: Windy tomorrow with thunderstorms moving through NC.

National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary

February 11-13, 2014 Event

Here are the NWS Raleigh office's latest maps concerning the winter storm that impacted North Carolina last week. Central NC was very fortunate to have been spared a major icestorm. Much colder air than was forecast poured in before the storm allowing the changeover from snow to be primarily sleet while precipitation was heaviest. While there were power outages, the potential for major icing never came to fruition. GA and SC sustained the brunt of the icing.

I am still waiting for an event summary for this storm. Given the difficulty with forecasting this storm, I find it hard to imagine that there will not be an extended summary of what happened.

Hello everyone. For several years now, Gary Buffaloe and I have joked about starting a blog. I have earned a reputation for blowing up your facebook newsfeed during inclement weather - especially winter weather. Special thanks to Jason Lankford for doing what we simply would not do - starting a blog. As Jason and Gary have mentioned, we are not meteorologists, we are simply guys who love the weather.
North Carolina weather can be and often is very complex, especially in the winter. To get snow on the ground in Raleigh, a lot of things have to come together in just the right way. We love watching these things.

I personally read weather forecasts from different sources (especially the National Weather Service's forecast discussions) and translate those discussions and forecasts into everyday language. I hope we all can do that here and that this blog will prove helpful to many.

Welcome: Part Duex

Jason's welcome needs no more words; nevertheless, I will add some.

Weather is cool.  North Carolina weather is especially cool.  We are fascinated by it.  Through personal conversations and social media, we have learned that weather fascinates you as well.  We are not meteorologists.  We are weather-enthusiasts.  You might compare us to Carolina Hurricanes' season-pass holders.  We may not be on the ice, or commenting from the Press Box, but we are at every game, read a lot of articles, and study the statistics regularly.  We are more than casual fans, but certainly not experts.

We will analyze the analysts, and hopefully help keep you informed about the world outside your windows and doors.  We also intend to post things that we think you will find interesting.  Furthermore, we want to dialogue with you.  If you have ever purchased a glass bottle of Cheerwine from your local corner store, you have seen yourself that weather is enjoyed most when it is shared with others.  Before the faithful group of gathered elders ever talk about NASCAR, they talk about the weather.  If you decide to take the leap from observer to participant, we ask that you play nice (at least relatively nice), and keep it clean.

Grace and peace,
Gary Buffaloe

Welcome

Welcome to #Wx.

Weather is complex, difficult to predict, and full of variables and fancy scientific words.

We don't claim to be experts on any of these things.  I can say that, personally, complex things confuse me.

We do, however, hope to share what we're learning about the weather with you in a simplified and straightforward manner.

Such weather!

February 12-13th

Here is a look at the light glaze south Raleigh saw in the overnight hours with this system.

Not enough to cause any significant issues.