It's Not Spring Yet

Quick update for WNC on the evening of 3/29/14:

Very gusty northwesterly winds (up to 60 mph) will usher in upslope snow showers late tonight into early Sunday morning. An inch of snow is possible in the lower elevations of northern Buncombe and southern Madison counties. The highest elevations could see more than six inches.

This winter will be remembered not for being particularly cold or snowy; rather, for being long.

Surprise! (Gary/Asheville)

Update (7:45PM 3/25): It has snowed on and off most of the day. Expect snow showers and gusty winds to continue through dawn. The difference between this snow, and the daytime snow earlier today, is that what falls will actually accumulate. Areas north and west of Asheville could see 1-2 inches of additional snow (more in the higher elevations near the TN border).

I should not have been surprised; however, when I went to bed at 11:00 PM it was 45 degrees in northern Buncombe county, and I thought whatever light snow managed to fall would have great difficulty overcoming the warm ground temperatures. Nevertheless, I woke up to an inch to inch and a half of wet snow blanketing elevated and grassy surfaces around my neighborhood.

For the rest of the day in Western North Carolina, expect continued cold temperatures, with increasing winds, gusting to as high as 45 mpg. Wind chills will dip to close to zero, especially in the high elevations. Furthermore, as the winds turn Northwesterly, upslope snow showers will drop another .5 inch of snow in Northern Buncombe county this evening (higher amounts near the TN border).

Enjoy some additional pictures of this last season snow:

Late Season Winter Threat (Brent/Raleigh)

Precipitation did not move into Central NC early enough to produce any wintry precipitation. However, as was forecast, NW and Northern Piedmont received snow, some of it measurable. Temps tonight will be unseasonably cold, so cover up those early season outdoor plants!

FINAL UPDATE Monday March 24, 7:30pm

Tuesday: The low that was threatening the area with winter weather over the weekend has been shifted well off the coast. It will be a powerful storm, just not here in NC. The most likely area for snow will be the N and NW Piedmont, with a rain/snow mix for the Triangle - possibly mixing at times as well as changing back and forth between p-types. Even in the Triad area where snow accumulates some, don't expect any real travel impact as ground temps are in the 40s. The times mentioned in my previous update from Saturday are still pretty much the same. Rain/snow mix up until 11am then changing to rain.

Tuesday night: Cold! Temps will be well into the 20s with single digit windchills.

Let's all just hope this is it and long term warm weather will arrive soon!

NWS Forecast for Tuesday March 25

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UPDATE Saturday March 22, 6:00pm

Models are trending warmer with Tuesday's system. As of now, it appears a powerful low pressure system will merge in some way with an upper level trough containing several shortwaves. This will occur over VA and the Carolinas Tuesday.

Currently there are 2 model extremes to be noted: 

1) The GFS shows a well formed and rapidly developing low pressure system interacting with the upper trough. This would form an intense band of precipitation between about 5am and noon Tuesday.

2) The ECMWF is trending slower to the point that there is no interaction between the low and the shortwaves. If this is the case then precipitation amounts (regardless of type) will be dramatically less.

For now the best course of action will be to go with the middle solution. So N of 64 and W of 95 will be the areas with the highest probability of seeing snow Tuesday morning. Areas S of 64 and E of 95 may see some snow early changing to rain by 8am. As of now all areas are expected to change to rain by 2pm. 

Once again, it is late March, so forecasting any kind of "winter" weather is difficult due to the high sun angle.

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Original Post:

The NWS has issued a hazardous weather outlook for central and parts of eastern NC for a potential storm system moving up the coast early next week. Models are in very good agreement (especially for a storm this far away) of the track of the storm. It looks to be a rather intense Miller-A closed low rapidly intensifying as it moves up the coast. As of now, the rain/snow line would be down near the NC/SC border for most if not all of the event. I will keep updating over the next couple of days as more information comes in from the NWS.

Winter Again! Tired Yet? Sunday 3/16/14 - Monday Night 3/17/14 (Brent/Raleigh)

UPDATE Sunday 4:45pm: Model guidance still unclear about temperatures aloft overnight tonight. Dry slot is moving in as predicted W to E, so precipitation overnight should remain steady through about 8pm, and as the lifting mechanism weakens and air aloft dries out, expect precipitation to become scattered and drizzly. Some freezing drizzle may occur overnight from the Triangle N and NW, but at least in the immediate area should be of little consequence. The ground has been sufficiently warmed by the March sun and warm temperatures such that it actually gives off heat, thus cutting down or eliminating ice accrual near the surface. This warming does not rule out the possibility of slick overpasses.

Monday UPDATE: Precipitation should be light and becoming lighter throughout the day, with any freezing drizzle thawing out by midday. An upper trough axis moves over during the day and with this trough, rain may become more steady. Other than this, not much has changed for Monday from what I posted last night (below).

Monday Night UPDATE: According to NWS, models are coming in drier for Monday night's event. This would be fortunate as our temperature chances for seeing nuisance icing are more favorable Monday night into Tuesday morning.

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PREVIOUS POST

With most of VA and MD already under winter storm watches and warnings, things are once again looking like N Central NC will be on the southern fringe of yet another arctic airmass interacting with precipitation. We don't have much longer, folks. These storms at this time of year are already in the climatologically unfavorable category. This unfavorability makes them even harder to forecast than they are in January and February. Hopefully everyone is enjoying this warm weather sunny Saturday we are having. I will attempt to summarize this complex forecast below.

Sunday: An upper level trough will slowly evolve over the next couple of days just west of the Appalachians into TN, while Sunday a surface low pressure system moves toward the TN valley. A secondary low will develop off the Carolina coast Sunday night. A front will move N tomorrow as precipitation comes with it, spreading SW to NE. 1-1.25" of rain expected into the afternoon. Temperature forecasts are difficult. Temps will begin to drop as the day progresses and precipitation moves in.

Sunday night: Forecast becomes even more difficult as a secondary cold front pushes into NC from the N bringing with it air from Canadian high pressure. Latest models have trended colder with the airmass. The precipitation forecast becomes even more tricky as a "dry slot" (a large area of dry air which moves into a mesoscale low pressure system. See an example HERE ) may move in early Monday morning. A dry slot will cut down tremendously on precipitation amounts. The chance for freezing rain occurs during this timeframe.

Monday: Drying is expected. This is fortunate because if precipitation were heavy enough during this time, the wet bulb (the temperature that occurs when evaporational cooling has reached its full effect and an airmass is completely saturated) temperature would be below freezing, thus rendering all precipitation as sleet, freezing rain, and possibly snow. Since precipitation amounts are supposed to wane during this time, the temps may be allowed to rise some. Expect light rain and light wintry mix N of a line from Albemarle to Fuquay Varina to Wilson Monday, with all rain S of the line.

Monday Night: The greatest threat of nuisance weather comes Monday night. Wet bulbs will certainly be below freezing. With model disagreement on precipitation amounts during this time period, it is wise to hold off on making any call. If a winter weather advisory is to be needed, this will be the time in which it will be needed. I urge everyone to pay close attention to the weather forecasts over the next couple of days.

NWS Forecast for Sunday:

Fast-Moving Line of Storms Incoming (Jason/Raleigh)

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WAKE COUNTY.

A strong, fast-moving line of thunderstorms is about to sweep through the Raleigh area, ahead of the approaching cold front. This line of storms should produce strong winds and heavy rain. 

This should be a short event as this line of storms will clear out quickly, ushering in rapidly-falling temperatures overnight.

WNC: More Snow, Wind, Cold #Wx (Gary/Asheville)

Burnt Orange=High Wind Warning (Gusts >60 MPG)
Brown=Wind Advisory (Gusts 45-55 MPH)
Blue=Winter Weather Advisory (1-3 in. snow)

Update 10:20 PM: 

It has been snowing in Northern Buncombe county.  As you can see from the excellent photographs, snow is beginning to accumulate on my deck.  Furthermore, grassy surfaces and roads are whitening, and I believe we should still expect an inch by morning.

The worst of the gusty winds have passed; however, guts to 30 mph and very cold wind chills will be common through the mountains, even into Thursday.

















Yesterday was deck-sitting weather, but March weather in the greatest state in the Union is nothing if not inconsistent. This morning's showers preceded a potent cold front that is even now on the doorstep of the Smokey's, and will not wait for an invitation to march right in (see what I did there?). Here in Northern Buncombe county, and I expect throughout the French Broad Valley, we are already experiencing extremely gusty winds in excess of 40 mph. I would not rule out a few 60 mph gusts even in the valley.

Expect high winds throughout the evening, with up-slope snow showers developing this evening along the Tennessee boarder. As usual with this type of set up, Asheville will see very little in the way of accumulation, but the closer one is to Madison/Haywood counties, the more likely he is to see the snow pile up. Even then, with warm ground temperatures and limited moisture, the most one can expect is half an inch to an inch, unless he is in one of the areas that favors heavier accumulations.

Tomorrow we will struggle to get out of the 40s, even in the valley, with the continuance of a stiff breeze. Things improve later this week, but we could be looking at some more showers, and even snow showers, Monday evening.

As always, if you are looking for a real forecast for WNC, check out: http://www.raysweather.com/ or http://weather.gov. If you want to rap (talk) about what's happening your way, whether you are in the WNC, or somewhere else entirely, leave a comment, and one of our #Wx folks will laugh, cry, hope, and sing with you.

Finally, check out this cool post from Buzzfeed (I don't usually use that combination of words in a sentence), ranking the Smokey Mountains #19 on a list of super cool places in 'Murica.

Concerning Wind, Rain, and a Late Season Chill 3/11-3/13/14 (Brent/Raleigh)

A Hazardous Weather Outlook for the possibility of issuing a wind advisory Wednesday has been posted by the NWS.

Tonight: Continued surface level SW flow will keep temps mild over night. We are between a high situated over the Caribbean and a low that will move over the central plains into the Ohio valley overnight. Expect this S and SW flow to bring in high and mid-level clouds overnight with scattered rain showers over western and southern NC by daybreak. Lows in the 50s.

Wednesday: Most of central and eastern NC to remain dry for the majority of the day. Temps may warm considerably given the possibility of partial sun. Expect temps to range from the upper 60s to mid 70s, with the possibility of even warmer temps where the sun breaks through for an extended period. As the low pressure moves from the Ohio valley into the mid-Atlantic, it deepens and intensifies. With this intensifying, we get squeezed between the low pressure system and the high over the Caribbean. Winds will increase dramatically. As the low exits the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts, the trailing cold front will sweep across NC. Rain and isolated thunderstorms are likely. The NW part of the State including the NW Piedmont will see the brunt of the wind. Unfortunately, most of these areas are the same ones crippled by last Friday's ice storm. Weakened trees and branches will likely fall. 

Wednesday night: The frontal winds will roar through Wednesday evening drying out any residual moisture on roadways. Black ice should not be a factor Thursday morning. Expect lows in the mid 20s. 

Thursday: Blustery! Highs in the 40s and windy.Winds will die down in the evening, followed by a cold night with lows once again in the 20s.

Tuesday Evening's Satellite Photo:

Beautiful Weekend on Tap! March 8 - March 9, 2014. (Brent/Raleigh)

Remember the time "springs forward" tonight by an hour

Saturday: With yesterday's miserable mess well out into the ocean and high pressure centered over the deep south, expect spring to show up. An upper-level ridge will bring SW flow aloft. This coupled with SW flow at the surface preceding our next cool front will bring in warm temps today. Mix those two factors with full March sunshine, and many locations across Central NC may break 70 today.

Saturday night: A dry cold front (associated with the low from yesterday) will move through, but don't expect the airmass behind it to be all that different. Expect lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s.

Sunday: As the northern jet stream trough exits the upper mid-atlantic and southern New England coast very early Sunday AM, a weak, dry cold front moves through (same one mentioned above). Zonal flow (the dominant E - W flow aloft) prevents cold air from making its way back down into NC. We have a dry airmass in place through at least Tuesday.

Saturday midday satellite:

Thursday 3/6-Friday 3/7 for Western North Carolina (Gary/Asheville)

I (Gary) have not updated #Wx much, because there has been little in the way of interesting #Wx in Western North Carolina.  This weekend's potential weather appeared, at least to the National Weather Service, to be little more than a wintry blip on the radar screen of the proverbial airliner destined for Spring.  WxSouth, NC Piedmont Weather, WNC Weather, and others mentioned the possibility of this system over-performing for most of the week.  The NWS has now issued a Winter Storm Warning for Buncombe county, as well as for most of Western North Carolina.  Significant accumulations of snow are probably for the highest elevations; however, the forecast is tricky for the valleys and foothills. Fluctuations in temperature of just a few degrees will matter a great deal for whether or not the Asheville area will see accumulating snow or sleet, or mostly plain old rain.  Even at this late hour there is no consensus among meteorologists regarding the forecast for our area.

I am not a meteorologist.  I encourage you to visit the links above for a forecast for your area.  I will however, update this post with some regularity, as precipitation falls.  

Gary B.

Rain 3-5-2014 (Jason/Raleigh)

This about sums up the forecast for the next 24-36 hours.

Thursday 3/6/14 through Friday 3/7/14 (Brent/Raleigh)

Thursday and Friday: As mentioned in a previous post, the month of March at this latitude is a difficult one for which to forecast any kind of winter weather.

Some discrepancy remains on the timing of precipitation arrival and the timing of our cold air supplier's exit.

For the Raleigh area, expect rain to move in sometime in the late afternoon. As the cold high pressure system pushes east off of the New England coast and rain moves in, rain may mix with freezing rain and possibly a little sleet at the beginning, having the potential to continue for several hours with little to no impact. The chances for wintry p-type increase to the NW, especially around the Triad. As surface flow enters the state from the SE, expect temperatures to gradually increase into Friday, thus melting any ice accrual (which will be a light glaze on trees if there is any at all). Precipitation arrival time along with arctic high positioning will affect the amount of winter p-types. The NW Piedmont/Triad may end up with an extended period of freezing rain and sleet. Depending on a couple of factors, these areas could even see some wet snow mix in when precipitation is heaviest. No winter p-type travel problems are expected from Raleigh to the east. 

Forecast Summary for Sunday Afternoon (3-2-14) through Tuesday (3-4-14) (Brent/Raleigh)

Winter Weather Advisory for the Triangle in effect from noon to midnight Monday.

UPDATE 6:30 PM for Monday 3-3: This is a difficult time of year for which to forecast any kind of winter weather, especially at this latitude. 

Precipitation appears likely at this time due to several different lift mechanisms moving in to allow for cloud development. The front is still forecast to be right around the NC/VA border at daybreak. Changeover from rain to freezing rain then to sleet still expected to occur around midday into early afternoon for the Triangle N to S. The northern counties of the Piedmont and Coastal Plain will see the longest duration of freezing rain and sleet. These areas will also see the greatest accumulations of sleet, freezing rain and snow. Sleet/snow combined accumulations in the northern counties could reach an inch with lesser amounts south.

Complicating factors: 

1) With a very springlike day reaching into the lower 70s Sunday and given that we had mostly full sun, the soil surface has warmed considerably. If sleet/snow falls with less intensity than expected, then precipitation will melt rapidly. 

2) If cold air moving in (advection) is not as strong as anticipated, then rain/sleet mix will have a longer duration thus cutting down on accumulation totals.

3) The middle layers of the atmosphere dry out around 3-4pm lessening precipitation intensity. Also, if cold air is not as intense as expected, then the Triangle may see an extended period of freezing rain/drizzle rather than sleet. 

It will be important to monitor road and traffic conditions before travelling.
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This forecast is subject to change this evening. I will update it accordingly.

Difficult forecast for this late winter storm affecting Central NC. 

Sunday afternoon into Sunday night: With a surface ridge moving offshore and an arctic cold front approaching from the NNW, Central NC will get squeezed between these two systems, causing SW winds to increase throughout the afternoon. Expect highs well into the 60s with breezy conditions. Tonight: winds will die down some as clouds lower and thicken. Very mild overnight with lows around 50. The arctic front should be around the NC/VA border by 5am Monday. 

Monday: Throughout the morning, very cold air and precipitation will move south (also known as a backdoor coldfront) over the NC/VA border, arriving in the triangle late morning into the afternoon. Precipitation may begin as rain and as the front surges southward will likely change over to freezing rain then progress into several hours of sleet for the area. As warm air aloft cools to near freezing, sleet may mix with or even briefly change over to snow. This will be of short duration as midlevel drying is forecast to move in, thus cutting off moisture supply in the area where snowflakes form.

Monday night: travel conditions will be hazardous. The northeast piedmont and coastal plain may experience lingering precipitation mostly in the form of freezing rain and freezing drizzle. Given the exceptionally cold air in the lower levels of the atmosphere, some snow columns/needles/grains may form, especially east of the triangle. Thus, lingering p-type may be freezing drizzle and snow. Lows will be in the teens.

Tuesday and Tuesday night: Sunny with highs in the low 40s. Lows in the 20s.

Beginning of the week: March 2 (Brent/Raleigh)

Tonight: as a weak surface ridge builds over the area, expect lows in the lower-mid 30s. Some fog may develop.

Sunday: the weak surface ridge moves offshore allowing a weak trough to form. This coupled with westerly winds aloft will allow warm air to drift into central NC. Expect temps in the mid-upper 60s unless a shield of cirrus clouds moves in midday. Clouds would prevent max forecast highs from being reached thus putting our temps in the low-mid 60s.

Sunday night: ahead of yet another arctic air mass, a WSW flow will keep temps relatively mild.

There still exists some model discrepancy on the timing of arrival concerning the arctic air Monday. At least one model has it moving into the northern counties by 7am....

More of an update tomorrow